Depressed bunker sales point toward shakier world trade outlook

The tide has turned for bunker sales and prices, an indication that global seaborne trade is on shakier ground this year. 

“Bunker prices tell the tale of a softening market,” broker BRS noted in a new report. 

As of yesterday, 0.5% very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) bunker prices had slid from $667 per ton to $524.50 year-on-year — a 20% drop. Meanwhile, 3.5% high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) bunker prices have held up relatively well, with the latest price at $469 a ton, a $30 decrease year-on-year. Accordingly, the HI-5 spread – VLSFO’s premium over HSFO – has narrowed to $55.50 a ton, driven by ample VLSFO supply East of Suez in the face of what BRS described as “lacklustre” demand. 

Looking at the gross tonnage of ships visiting Singapore, there’s been a clear year-on-year decline in January and February, led by the bulker and tanker segments.

“I think it’s reasonable to say there’s been a slowdown in trade at the start of the year. And given the headaches associated with trying to get certainty around tariffs at the moment, it’s understandable why some might feel inclined to hesitate for a while,” Jack Jordan, managing editor of Ship&Bunker, a leading global bunkering title, told Splash today.

Seaborne trade volumes grew 2.1% to 12.6bn tonnes in 2024, according to Clarksons Research which is projecting a 1.2% growth in 2025 to 12.8bn tonnes. Tonne-mile growth grew at a 15-year high of 6% last year, but Clarksons suggests this could recalibrate to around 1% this year.